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SPP 298

Title: FIVE YEARS AFTER THE FALL: TRAJECTORIES OF SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY IN POST-COMMUNIST EUROPE
 
Author: William Mishler and Richard Rose
 
Description: This paper assesses the trajectory of support for democracy in seven regimes in Central and Eastern Europe--Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovenia--during the first five years since the fall of Communism. We begin by examining popular approval of the new regimes, using 1991 New Democracies Barometer data, and develop a multiple regression model accounting for individual suppport (or absence of support) at that time We then apply the same methods to three successive NDB surveys from 1992 to 1995. In doing so we test the dynamics of support for new democracies, involving the extent to which support is contingent on political performance, including comparisons of the present and past regimes, as against economic performance, which may anticipate future benefits. We also explore whether and to what extent influences on support change over time as citizens acquire experience with the new regimes, especially whether the significance of political performance erodes while economic performance grows in importance.

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Postal Address:    CSPP Publications, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XQ, UK

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CSPP School of Government & Public Policy U. of Strathclyde Glasgow G1 1XQ Scotland
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