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SPP 488

Title: A MATRIX MODEL OF TURNOUT. THE 2009 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION
 
Author: Richard Rose and Gabriela Borz
 
Description: This article introduces a matrix model to account for variations in turnout as a function of the interaction between individual attributes and perceptions, stressed by the Michigan model, and stimuli from political mobilization and government performance, stressed by institutional theories. European Parliament elections are specially suited for this model because institutional stimuli come from both national and European levels and influence individuals with varying socio-economic attributes in 27 different national contexts. Multi-level analysis of the 2009 European Election Study survey is used to test four hypotheses. The results emphasize the importance of cross-level perceptions involving social psychological engagement with national politics and stimuli from national institutions about an EU event This implies that the limited citizen commitment to participation in EP elections is not so much a problem that the EU can solve but must be accepted as a condition of multi-level European politics.

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Postal Address:    CSPP Publications, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XQ, UK

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CSPP School of Government & Public Policy U. of Strathclyde Glasgow G1 1XQ Scotland
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