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SPP 399

Author: Richard Rose, Sten Berglund and Neil Munro
Description: Given differences between Baltic and Soviet nationalities in the Baltic states, their entry into the European Union gives political point to the scientific question: To what extent are ethnic and linguistic differences there a source of conflict or moderated by cross-cutting differences in identities and interests. After summarizing the recent historical causes of nationality divisions in the Baltic states and reviewing alternative theories of cohesion and cleavage, the paper uses New Baltic Barometer data to determine the extent to which each nationality is internally homogeneous or internally differentiated. Insofar as differences do exist, the chapter tests the extent to which identities, whether with a Baltic nation, Russia or Europe, or interests, whether defined within the state's boundaries or in relation to Europe or Russia influence support for the current political regime or a desire for regime change. It asks the same questions of representative samples of both titular and Russian-speaking populations in each of the three states. The results show that interests matter more than identities, and good government more than self-government in generating support for the regime.

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CSPP School of Government & Public Policy U. of Strathclyde Glasgow G1 1XQ Scotland