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SPP 427

Author: Neil Munro
Description: Using a 2005 New Europe Barometer survey immediately after the Orange Revolution, this paper explores the determinants of Ukrainian citizens’ views about where their future lies, whether with Western Europe or with Russia and the CIS. It shows that Ukrainian citizens disagree. They divided into three groups, those rejecting an either/or choice constituting a substantial category. Those who believe the future is with the CIS tend to be older, believe they have lost out economically from transformation, have a positive view of the former Communist regime and are concentrated in the Donbas region of east Ukraine. Those who believe the future is in Western Europe tend to be more educated, optimistic about their economic future, prefer the current regime, are more politically efficacious, and are concentrated in West Ukraine. Regional effects are found to be additional to rather than a reflection of differences of language and national identity. Ukrainian citizens are cross-pressured, but neither east nor west Ukrainians are in a position to dictate the country’s future foreign policy course.

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